According to one famous futurist, “Someday in the near future I’ll be watching Ally McBeal. I like the outfit she’s wearing. So I put my hand on the TV screen and she‘ll interrupt the program and say, ‘Faith, do you like what I’m wearing?”Yeah,’ I’ll say. ‘I like your suit.’ And she‘ll say, ‘Here are the colors it comes in.’ I’ll tell Ally that I’ll take just navy or black, maybe both. And she‘ll say, ‘No you won’t, Faith. You’ve already got too many navy and black outfits in your closet right now. I think you should try red this time.’ And I’ll say okay, and the next day the red suit is delivered, in my size, to my home.”
When asked how soon this would happen, the famous futurist replied, “Within the next five years.”
Don’t hold your breath. Ally McBeal will be lucky if her TV show is still on in five years, never mind her personal shopping advice service.
While television sets and telephones are supposedly becoming computers, computers are supposedly becoming appliances that can receive television and radio programming as well as telephone calls.
Broadcast.com, for example, offers live broadcasts of morethan thirty television stations and 370 radio stations. All available on your computer through the magic of the Internet. Meanwhile, rival Real Networks has put together more than 1,100 live stations on their lineup. Competitor InterVU has put together a network focused on business services.
Will people watch television programming on their computers? Sure, some people will, but most television viewing is likely to continue to be done on TV sets.
The truth is, technologies divide. They don’t converge. A quick look at history validates the division theory.
- Radio used to be just radio. Today we have AM radio and FM radio. We also have portable radios, car radios, headset radios, clock radios, cable radio, and satellite radio. Radio didn‘t combine with another medium. It divided.
- Television used to be just television. Today we have broadcast TV, cable TV satellite TV, pay-per-view TV. Television didn‘t combine with another medium. It divided.
- The telephone used to be just the telephone. Today we have regular telephones, cordless telephones, car phones, mobile phones, and satellite phones. Also analog and digital phones. The telephone didn‘t combine with another communications technology. It divided.
The computer used to be just a computer. Today we have mainframe computers, midrange computers, minicomputers, network computers, personal computers, notebook computers, and palm computers. The computer didn‘t combine with another technology. It divided.
People often confuse what’s possible with what’s practical. After Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin walked on the moon in 1969, the media were filled with stories about future colonists in space. Where they would live. What they would eat. How they would work.
(The moon is a great place to visit, but how many people would want to live there?)
What’s possible won’t happen just because it’s possible. It also has to be practical. Computers and television would seem like a natural, but Apple, Toshiba, Gateway, and others have launched combination products that failed.
Recently Philips went one step further. In addition to a computer and a television tuner, the Philips DVX8000 features an FM/AM radio and a CD/DVD player. What more could you want?
Simplicity, ease of use, reliability, light weight, protection against early obsolescence, and low cost, for example.
Instead of accessing the Internet from your home television set, it is much more likely that you will someday have an Internet appliance. An electronic machine devoted to Internet connections only. (Divergence at work.)
Actually there are a number of such products on the market. For $199, you can get the i-opener from Netpliance, a device that does just Web browsing and e-mail. If you’re interested in e-mail only, you can order the e-Mail PostBox from VTech Industries and save $100. (The BlackBerry is another divergence device that has quite a few enthusiastic users.)
Why are divergence products generally winners and convergence products generally losers? One reason is that convergence products are always a compromise. The Intel microprocessor inside the Philips DVX8000 should be good for three years or so. The home-theater half of the machine should last twenty years.
Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)
Internet E-commerce and Law of Business Divergence part 2
- The mobile Internet Part 1
- Internet E-commerce and Law of Business Divergence part 1
- The mobile Internet Part 2
- Stay Ahead of the Curve (continue...)
- Managing Stakeholder Relationship Part 1
- The Follow-up: What Do You Do, Or Not Do, for an Encore?
- Internet E-commerce and Law of Business Divergence part 3
- Work from Home Now, Starting your own business
- Opening a craft market shop
- From profit to performance, Marketing Logistics
Posted by: arlene
Categories:
